VN Index +6.2% in August, lifted by VCB, BCM, and consumer stocks. PYN Elite +1,9 %, as our turnaround stocks VRE and ACV took a pause and dampened our performance. Banks gave out optimistic full-year guidances during investor briefings. Moreover, SBV is likely to relax the credit quota in early September and firmly commits to the original credit growth plan of 14%. News reported Apple is in talks to make AppleWatch and MacBook in Vietnam, and Samsung plans to make semiconductor parts in Vietnam and invest an additional USD3.3bn in 2022. Such investments could move Vietnam’s manufacturing sector further up the value chain in the coming years. The stock exchange launched T+2 trading (shortened from T+3).
Macro: Vietnam’s economy shows resilience on robust domestic consumption. 3Q GDP is estimated at +13% (-6% in 3Q2021). World Bank, Moody’s, and several brokerages revised up their 2022 GDP forecast to 7.5-8.5%. Retail sales surged 50.2% YoY in Aug from a low base (+12% and +16% higher than Aug 2020 and Aug 2019, respectively). Inflation eased to +2.9% YoY. Export +22.1% in Aug 2022 (-1.3% YoY in Aug 2021). Industrial production +15.6% YoY, PMI 52.7. FDI disbursement +10.5% YoY to $12.8 billion for 8M2022.
The stock of the month: TPB
TPB was a pioneer in digital banks many years before this space became popular and crowded. Its early investment has paid off: it added 1.5 million new customers in 1H2022, ranking the 2nd highest in terms of new user addition among all banks. Its total customers exceeded 6 million, 70% below age 40. TPB’s app total downloads in 1H2022 ranks top 6 among all banks, only behind MBBank and 4 large state-owned banks and ahead of all the rest 10+ private banks. The fast user growth helped to keep TPB’s CASA deposit stable in 2Q2022, while many banks saw their CASA balance shrinking in a tightening environment.
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