The ten percent jump in the PYN Elite NAV in January was wiped out during February, and now the NAV is back to the year-end level. Uncertainty still prevails in the market, but we believe that several factors will guide the Vietnamese stock market higher during this year. Inflation expectations and interest rate decisions in the USA lead the world’s general investor sentiment, but in Vietnam many other issues have played a more important role, taking the stock market down during 2022. Based on these premises, we can assume that local factors will trigger the biggest market turns for Vietnam in the next 12 months.
Vietnam’s stock market became overly cheap in 2022. Vietnam is lagging peer markets of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines by about 30 percent, when comparing the relative returns of the last 12 months (Asean4: -3% versus Vietnam: -32%). Vietnam’s earnings growth outlook is still the strongest in the Southeast Asian region. Bank deposit rates in Vietnam got stirred to extremely high levels in December 2022, but rates have started to decline and the trend is likely to continue this year as the factors that caused uncertainty in Vietnam’s financial markets will recede.
Attached are the earnings growth figures for the year 2022. We can expect further earnings growth from our top holdings this year as well, albeit slower than last year’s 30 percent. We expect that the earnings of housing developer Vinhomes will also increase in 2023.
Important information regarding the text and the Fund
The attached publication is marketing material and should not be regarded as a recommendation to subscribe or redeem units of the PYN Elite Fund. Before subscribing please familiarize yourself with the Key Information Document, the Prospectus and the Rules of the Fund. The material presented in this text is based on PYN Fund Management’s view of markets and investment opportunities. PYN Elite Fund (non-UCITS) invests its assets in a highly allocated manner in frontier markets and in a small number of companies. This investment approach involves a larger risk of volatility compared to ordinary broadly diversified equity investments. The value of an investment may decline substantially in unfavorable market conditions or due to an individual unsuccessful investment. It is entirely possible that the estimates of economic development or a company’s business performance presented in this presentation will not be realized as presented and they involve material uncertainties.