VN Index soared 9.2% in July and crossed 1200 points for the first time since Sep-22, driven by the broad-based rallies of various sectors. PYN Elite +5.2% MoM, led by VHM, VRE, ACV and MBB. After 4 rounds of policy rate cuts since March, deposit rates have dropped by 300 bps YTD, prompting large money inflows into the stock market from bank deposits. The average daily trading value reached $893 million, the highest level since Apr-22, and even approached $1 billion in the last week of July. In 1H23, our 16 core holdings posted solid average earnings growth of 32% YoY, whereas total earnings by VN Index’s listed companies declined by 10% YoY.
Macro: July data continued to show significant improvements vs. 1H23: July industrial production +3.7% YoY vs. -1% YoY in 6M23. Disbursed FDI +3.04% YoY and registered FDI +86% YoY in July, successfully reversing the declining trend in 1H23. July exports slid by a minimal 3.5% YoY vs. 6M23’s double-digit decline of 12% YoY. Vietnam’s trade surplus reached a new all-time high of $15.2 billion YTD, supporting FX reserve and a stable exchange rate. Meanwhile, YoY inflation remained incredibly low at 2.06% YoY, making room for further declines in interest rates. In fact, there were already talks about further policy rate cuts for the coming months.
PYN Elite stock of the Month: VHM
In 1H23, VHM reported a stellar net profit growth of 314% YoY, supported by on-time delivery of its unprecedentedly high presales from the launch in Q2 last year. Such 1H earnings were 10 times the combined earnings of the next 10 largest listed developers. The last 3 quarters were the most difficult times in over 10 years for Vietnam’s real estate market: It was almost frozen throughout 4Q22-1Q23 due to surging deposit rates, before liquidity started to recover from mid-2Q23. Nevertheless, VHM’s 1H23 presales beat market expectations to reach $1.7 billion, completing half of its 2023 presales target. Unbilled bookings stayed high at $3.8 billion by the end of Q2, setting a solid base for its resilient earnings in FY23-25 period.
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The attached publication is marketing material and should not be regarded as a recommendation to subscribe or redeem units of the PYN Elite Fund. Before subscribing please familiarize yourself with the Key Information Document, the Prospectus and the Rules of the Fund. The material presented in this text is based on PYN Fund Management’s view of markets and investment opportunities. PYN Elite Fund (non-UCITS) invests its assets in a highly allocated manner in frontier markets and in a small number of companies. This investment approach involves a larger risk of volatility compared to ordinary broadly diversified equity investments. The value of an investment may decline substantially in unfavorable market conditions or due to an individual unsuccessful investment. It is entirely possible that the estimates of economic development or a company’s business performance presented in this presentation will not be realized as presented and they involve material uncertainties.
PYN Elite Monthly Review.pdf