PYN Elite’s NAV hit its low point for the year on 27 July, when it closed at €487.3. Since then, the NAV has recovered upwards roughly 10%, with the latest figure at around the €535.5 level.
Rising interest rates have pushed investors to sell equity holdings, while inflation expectations and liquidity conditions in the Vietnamese market remain challenging — partly due to the new huge infrastructure investment projects.
Exchange rates, liquidity, the trade balance, inflation expectations and interest rates are all closely connected. The price of gasoline for consumers has been managed well, as the government quickly removed fuel taxes once the war in Iran flared up.
Alongside investment activity, two important factors tightened Vietnam’s liquidity situation over January–July. The rapid rise in DRAM chip prices pushed the trade balance into negative territory, as export industries had to buy huge volumes of chips at higher prices than before. Export product prices using those chips will also rise, but the expected positive impact on the trade balance comes with roughly a six-month lag. Later trade surpluses should help offset the earlier deficits. Oil imports also peaked in price in spring 2026, but by our calculations the DRAM purchases were the single biggest cause of the rapid deficit in the trade balance — the impact of chip purchases over the seven-month period was as much as USD 25 billion.
We believe Vietnam’s liquidity situation will gradually improve over the rest of the year, even though there is currently no end in sight to the war in Iran, which means the price of imported oil is likely to stay rather high.
We had expected the robust earnings growth in Vietnam to drive share prices sharply higher, but the liquidity situation has evidently kept share prices crawling.