The VN-Index fell sharply by 11% in March as a broad sell-off spread across sectors, driven by concerns over the ongoing US and Israel war with Iran. The index briefly dropped about 15%, falling below the 1,600-point level, reflecting concerns about Vietnam’s crude supply. The index later gained 5% as sentiment improved after the government confirmed that Nghi Son Refinery was operating at full capacity, with crude supply secured through the end of May. A visit by Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính to Russia, where a preliminary LNG agreement was signed, also supported confidence. PYN Elite Fund declined 9.6%, slightly outperforming index for the month and year to date.
Macro: 1Q GDP reached 7.8%. March retail sales accelerated to 12.1% YoY (up from 10.4% YoY in 2M26), while exports grew 20.1% YoY. March FDI registration surged 146% YoY, and disbursed FDI remained solid at 9.4% YoY. Public investment disbursement rose 45% in 1Q. The PMI eased to 51.2 in March as higher freight and fuel costs weighed on demand. Still, it remained in expansion for the ninth straight month, one of the longest expansion streaks in Asia. Ahead of AGM season, most companies have announced 2026 profit targets. Banks in our portfolio are guiding for average profit growth of 22% YoY, while HPG targets 42% YoY and FPT 15% YoY.
PYN Elite Stock of the Month: Mobile World (MWG)
MWG set an ambitious profit target of 31% YoY. Its consumer electronics chain DMX aims for 20% YoY profit growth, while its grocery chain BHX targets a 140% profit growth. BHX is aligned with the national push to upgrade traditional wet markets into modern trade, which supports its rapid expansion. DMX is expected to gain market share given its scale and strong financing partnerships offering Buy Now Pay Later program, especially as affordability becomes a key competitive advantage amid rising consumer electronics prices driven by DRAM shortages. An upcoming DMX IPO in 2H2026 could support group valuation. MWG introduced a more disciplined ESOP policy, reducing the base issuance amount, with additional shares tied to profit outperformance.