VN Index rose 3.1% in November, mainly thanks to Vingroup companies. Without their strength, the broad market fell -1.2%. Sentiment was cautious due to political noise and tightening liquidity. Overnight rates moved higher as year-end credit demand outpaced deposit growth. This dampened sentiment, especially in rate-sensitive sectors like banks and brokerages. PYN Elite -5.8% in November, mainly due to Sacombank. The delay of the VAMC stake auction to 1H26 disappointed investors. In addition, the one-off bad debt recovery income was used to build provisions. While this greatly strengthens the balance sheet, it fell short of investors’ near-term profit expectations.
Macro: PMI reached 53.8 in November, marking the fifth straight month of improving business conditions. First-half of November data showed exports rising 16.1% YoY. Although full macro data is not yet available, we believe growth continued to be led by exports, manufacturing, and major conglomerates’ mega projects, while SMEs, household businesses, and retail consumption grew at softer pace. To support more inclusive growth, the MoF has proposed tax reforms that would lower taxes for household and individual businesses, as well as certain personal income brackets. This should increase disposable income and support consumer spending and SMEs next year.
PYN Elite stock of the month: FPT (FPT Corporation)
We divested FPT in 2024 at its price peak but continued to monitor the company and have recently re-entered the stock. Since last year, the stock has declined around 30%, mainly due to a weaker IT backlog amid tariff-related uncertainty and investor concerns about GenAI’s disruptive impact. Recent indicators are encouraging. FPT’s backlog has recovered since July and maintained strong momentum, growing 22% YoY for 10M2025, with October nearing a record high. As backlog typically converts into revenue within 6–9 months, current consensus forecasts — assuming only mid-teen growth next year — appear conservative. With continuously recovering demand from the US and Asian markets, FPT is likely to beat low expectations and overcome market skepticism.